Tri-Nations predictions

The Tri-Nations decider kicks off in a few hours time and it looks likely to be a titanic clash. The All Blacks are favourites to win after the Aussies found a couple of chinks in the Bok armoury last week.

Judging from the media war that has accompanied the two teams this week one can imagine there is no love lost between these teams.

A couple of bets here:

Gone with the Boks to win

First points scored - gone each way on tries and also put a few bucks down on a drop goal. Traditionally the Boks have reverted to the old fashioned drop kick when they want to put a side on the back foot and I wouldn't be surprised to see them try it here.

First try scorer again was split four ways on Fourie Du Preez, Pierre Spies, Joe Rockockoko and Richie Mccaw.

C'mon the Boks!

Tri-Nations betting

Australia and South Africa clash today with the Springboks needing just two points to wrap up the Tri-Nations.

Again I don't see how anybody can look beyond the Springboks today - even if they do have a couple of walking wounded.

I'm expecting both sides to play a running game. The Boks want the points and the Aussies have nothing to lose so I'm banking on the first points to come from a try. I've gone each way on the sides at 3/1 for the Boks and 5/1 for the Aussies.

First try-scorer is a tricky one and I have tried to cover my bases taking Spies (22/1) and Du Preez (20/1) again this week and then Matt Giteau (16/1) and James O'Connor (14/1).

Odds supplied courtesy of World Sports Betting.

Giteau gets off?!

That's impossible - how can Matt Giteau not be cited for that "tackle" or assault on Fourie Du Preez.

It was probably one of the worst non-tackles I have seen this year and coming from a player of Giteaus class and ability, it is simply shocking.

Not citing a player for an incident like that sends the wrong message out to players and fans alike and without trying to come across as "sour grapes" - one has only to think of Bakkies Botha and Schalk Botha serving "sentences" for dirty play and then wondering where the consistency is.

Bakkies got four weeks for charging into a ruck and Schalk got eight weeks for "intentional contact with the face" (I think that was the end decision, not eye gouging).... what Giteau do in that instance?

Disappointment

Disappointment - that is the only word I can use to describe the Springbok loss at Ellis Park (Or Coca-Cola Park as it is now less than fondly know. This is our damn fortress where we hardly ever lose - 8 years is a long time in international sport.

I personally felt it was disrespectful to both our fans as well as the British & Irish Lions players and supporters for us to make wholesale changes to the squad.

The Lions have toured for the last 5 weeks playing up to two games a week against some bruising opposition and you have not once heard them complain - we decide to basically write off the last test match by replacing 10 players?!

(And then we stick Pierre Spies on the wing? Bizarre)

If this is how we are planning to go into the Tri-Nations then I worry for our side. While the Lions side has some good individual attackers the Australian and All Black back 3's who have played together a lot will make mincemeat of a defence if it is not prepared.... I hope Div has a plan here.

The discipline shown by the Boks in this series has also been poor and the only reason it hasn't seen the side meltdown is because as a team we carry a lot of experience and skills which made sure we were on the winning side.... What's going to happen when we are on the backfoot in the Tri-Nations?!

Sevens Table

Wanted - Australian and New Zealand rugby blogger counterparts!

With the Super14 ahead of us, we're trying to partner with a couple of South African, Australian and New Zealand rugby bloggers to try and make our platforms a little more interactive.

So if you operate a rugby blog in any of these regions and are a passionate supporter of one of the franchises in the competition then let me know and lets try and find ways to work together to boost traffic to eachother sites and have fun allowing readers to interact and chirp a little bit.

Either post your blog details in the comments section or mail me at marc@rival.co.za!

Losing patience

I hate to say it but South African rugby fans are losing patience with the performances of the Bok side.

Before anyone starts on the race card - shut it - I'm a PDV fan, but something needs to change in the way the Boks are approaching this tour. Forget blaming the referees - this tour had the hallmark of a disinterested squad from before they left the SA shores.


You make controversial selections like Rose and Ralepele and you bring an exciting prospect like Nokwe through but don't utilise them against the tours weakest opposition?

Makes no sense to me.

I don't need to be told that Ruan Pienaar is a good rugby player - I've seen him play the game at the top level for the last three years and do so well. I DO however need to know that we have a 2nd or 3rd choice flyhalf (depending on what happens with Butch James) - whether it is Peter Grant, Frans Steyn or Earl Rose.

I DO need to know that Chilliboy is going to be the number two hooker and that Pierre Spies is the better choice number 8 than Ryan Kankowski.




Whether the players are interested or not after a long season of rugby is up for debate - especially when you look at the injuries being clocked up. Guthro Steenkamp, Fourie Du Preez and Bismarck Du Plessis are now all carrying knocks.

The players all have long hard Super 14 and Tri-Nations campaigns ahead of them, and if they (players and management) are going to approach this tour in what appears to be a disinterested frame of mind, then maybe the tour wasn't worth doing in the first place?

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Weekend international rugby

Supplied by the Sports Trader blog

It's a rugby filled weekend and while I think the results will probably be pretty predictable it might be interesting to take a look at some of the more exotic bets:

(Odds as supplied by Black Pearl Sports Betting)

England vs Australia (Australia to win)
1st scoring play
- Australia try (4/1)
- England try (9/2)

An Aussie try looks attractive

France vs. the Pacific Islanders
We've got France down to win comfortably and no exotics are offered here, pity we might have gone with a Pacific Islanders to score first though...

Ireland vs New Zealand (All Blacks to win)
First try scorers (Top 3)
Sitiveni Sivivatu - 12/1
Joe Rokocko - 12/1
Brian O'Driscoll - 12/1

Our preference is for All Black centre Conrad Smith quoted at 16/1

First scoring play we're going with a New Zealand try at 22/10

Italy vs. Argentina
I suspect Argentina will carry too much firepower for the Nick Mallett coached Italy, but the Italian side have been on the up since the South African took charge so watch their progress with interest.

The BIG game of the weekend is South Africa vs. Scotland.

Despite the Scots being at home, I can't see any way that the Boks will lose. Scotland are simply going to be outclassed on all fronts.

So I've turned my attention to a first try scorer and quoted some odds below:

Bryan Habana - 12/1
Jean De Villiers - 12/1
Adrian Jacobs - 18/1
Ruan Pienaar - 20/1
Ricky Januarie - 20/1
Pierre Spies - 22/1
Schalk Burger - 25/1
Juan Smith - 25/1
Bismarck du Plessis - 33/1
Beast Mtawarira - 40/1

Despite all the chatter about the backs running the Scots ragged, I'm favouring a try from a set piece / scrum. I think Ricky Januarie at 20/1 is attractive, but my gut is headed for Juan Smith or Beast Mtawarira

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Planning?

I know that Keo has already touched on the subject so I don't want to replicate too many of their arguments, but I sometimes have to query the lack of planning that goes into the management and selection of players for the year end tour.

This year end tour has pitted the South African team against 5-Nations champions Wales, a very weak Scotland and then a so-so English side.

The 'A' team played against Wales and achieved a battling 20-15 win - the narrowness of which I think has spooked SA coach Pieter Devilliers not to experiment in the Scotland game this weekend.

That means that guys like Earl Rose, Jongi Nokwe and Chilliboy Ralelepele have basically gone on the tour as baggage boys. Yeah they might learn a bit on the tour, but they are not going to get game time, which the tour was actually supposed to provide them with.

Ralepele in particular needs to run on at least once.

Nokwe - we know he is a classy winger and he certainly wouldn't weaken the Bok side in a match up against a relatively weak Scotland.

Rose - well if he was picked as such a controversial selection - then why is he not going to get the game time after being thrust into the spotlight?

Unconvincing performance from the Springboks

The Springboks were less than convincing in putting away the Welsh side 20-15 yesterday afternoon.

A win is a win I guess, especially we were experimenting around our flyhalf, but I would have expected them to be somewhat more clinical in putting the Welsh away, especially after achieving such a big lead....

Gonna have to up our game if we're planning to put England away in the coming weeks...

Currie Cup rugby picks

From the Sports Trader blog.

As most of you know, I have been covertly backing the Lions from around 7-1. While I never admit in public that the bet exists, I think they are going to be the surprise package this weekend.

They have a problem at flyhalf and I think even they acknowledge it. The decision to move Rose to fullback (in my opinion) is a vote of no confidence.

I think a lot is going to revolve around Jaque Fourie amongst the backline.

Don’t write the Lions side off, they have a sneaky ability to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

In terms of the Bulls - I suspect they simply have way too much firepower for the Cheetahs this year…

The irony of South African sport

Sport remains a hugely political tool in South Africa and I think many ordinary people find it frustrating when government officials who haven’t seen a sports field (let alone run on one) start making bold predictions about how they are going to ‘fix’ things.

Upfront, I completely acknowledge that sport was largely divided along racial lines in the past so I don’t deny that there is some merit in the racial arguments.

However the landscape is changing. No side in South African cricket or rugby enjoys the backing of the likes of billionaire Patrice Motsepe. The South African football side is not subjected to selection criteria of local, black coaches or quotas. In fact if one adds up how much the national football side has spent on foreign coaches or advisors over the last decade, it must be a massive figure.

This week has been a case in point about government administrators getting on their high horse and focusing on the wrong aspects of South African sport.

Every few years, sports administrators (typically those with political ties), will get together to hold a sports indaba of sorts where the ‘future strategic direction’ of sport will be covered. Ironically senior figures in cricket, rugby and soccer are normally not invited to give their input.

A hot topic this week has been the future of the Springbok emblem worn by the national rugby team. The politicos it should go because they believe it divides South Africa along racial lines.

The ‘logical decision’ is that it must go to unite South African sport.

Please note that senior rugby administrators and players were not invited to comment at this congress / indaba / conference or whatever they want to call it.

(Bear in mind – nobody actually knows if these guys have any legal backing to the ‘decisions’ that are taken here nor do they enjoy backing of the ruling government party, even if it is convened by some of its more militant members).

Now let’s remember that South African rugby has won 2 World Cups, a Tri-Nations, has a good black coach that is there on merit and has been able to attract an increasingly mixed racial audience to its grounds.

Soccer on the other hand is plumbing new lows. Millions have been spent on foreign coaches, the players themselves are reluctant to play and pick and choose the games they want. The national side is barely competitive with the minnows on the African continent that have budgets probably one fiftieth of what Bafana Bafana enjoys.

The national Olympics team managed a single medal at the 2008 Olympics campaign. We took along more non participating members in our squad than actually athletes, sponsors were disappointed or more interested in sponsoring the Paralympics squad and despite this, the athletes were poorly managed.

Throw in the fact that we have local government departments trying to sell off the land on which grass roots sports clubs operate to make sure that their books balance at the end of the year and the minor issue of a global financial crisis that is robbing all sports disciplines of sponsorship money and we have a pretty grim sports scene.

But no – the priority is to make sure we get rid of a brand that is highly successful, generates a lot of revenue for grass roots sports development.

I think we all agree that sport in South Africa is not perfect, but the meddling of sports officials is somewhat ironic. They talk about wanting to improve sport, but the idea of actually focusing on the problems is something that escapes some people’s agendas.