Punting on the Boks

I don't think that there is any doubt that the Boks will beat Scotland this afternoon - I guess the only real issue is by how far.

It is not even worth putting money down on the Boks to win.

The Boks are minus a couple of key players and one of the most interesting markets is around the first try-scorer.

I like Lwazi Mvovo (8/1) to score on debut, Juan Smith (20/1) and Francois Hougaard (18/1) to get the first points 5 pointer on the board.

(Odds supplied by World Sports Betting)

C'mon the Boks!

Weekend international rugby

Supplied by the Sports Trader blog

It's a rugby filled weekend and while I think the results will probably be pretty predictable it might be interesting to take a look at some of the more exotic bets:

(Odds as supplied by Black Pearl Sports Betting)

England vs Australia (Australia to win)
1st scoring play
- Australia try (4/1)
- England try (9/2)

An Aussie try looks attractive

France vs. the Pacific Islanders
We've got France down to win comfortably and no exotics are offered here, pity we might have gone with a Pacific Islanders to score first though...

Ireland vs New Zealand (All Blacks to win)
First try scorers (Top 3)
Sitiveni Sivivatu - 12/1
Joe Rokocko - 12/1
Brian O'Driscoll - 12/1

Our preference is for All Black centre Conrad Smith quoted at 16/1

First scoring play we're going with a New Zealand try at 22/10

Italy vs. Argentina
I suspect Argentina will carry too much firepower for the Nick Mallett coached Italy, but the Italian side have been on the up since the South African took charge so watch their progress with interest.

The BIG game of the weekend is South Africa vs. Scotland.

Despite the Scots being at home, I can't see any way that the Boks will lose. Scotland are simply going to be outclassed on all fronts.

So I've turned my attention to a first try scorer and quoted some odds below:

Bryan Habana - 12/1
Jean De Villiers - 12/1
Adrian Jacobs - 18/1
Ruan Pienaar - 20/1
Ricky Januarie - 20/1
Pierre Spies - 22/1
Schalk Burger - 25/1
Juan Smith - 25/1
Bismarck du Plessis - 33/1
Beast Mtawarira - 40/1

Despite all the chatter about the backs running the Scots ragged, I'm favouring a try from a set piece / scrum. I think Ricky Januarie at 20/1 is attractive, but my gut is headed for Juan Smith or Beast Mtawarira

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Planning?

I know that Keo has already touched on the subject so I don't want to replicate too many of their arguments, but I sometimes have to query the lack of planning that goes into the management and selection of players for the year end tour.

This year end tour has pitted the South African team against 5-Nations champions Wales, a very weak Scotland and then a so-so English side.

The 'A' team played against Wales and achieved a battling 20-15 win - the narrowness of which I think has spooked SA coach Pieter Devilliers not to experiment in the Scotland game this weekend.

That means that guys like Earl Rose, Jongi Nokwe and Chilliboy Ralelepele have basically gone on the tour as baggage boys. Yeah they might learn a bit on the tour, but they are not going to get game time, which the tour was actually supposed to provide them with.

Ralepele in particular needs to run on at least once.

Nokwe - we know he is a classy winger and he certainly wouldn't weaken the Bok side in a match up against a relatively weak Scotland.

Rose - well if he was picked as such a controversial selection - then why is he not going to get the game time after being thrust into the spotlight?