Rugby betting - Super 14

There is an interesting weekend of Super 14 rugby ahead of us and we have made some controversial picks for this weekends fixtures.

We're backing all the home teams to come in:

• Highlanders vs Waratahs - it is hard work to come to the House of Pain at this point in the season


• Stormers vs Crusaders - Mouthwatering fixture but its hard to look beyond the Stormers at Newlands


• Hurricanes vs Chiefs - Another interesting fixture but the bumps and bruises will add up for the Chiefs?


• Brumbies vs Reds - From a South African perspective the Brumbies would do us all a favour and knock the Reds back


• Cheetahs vs Blues - The Cheetahs can take heart from their last fixture of a hard tour. They might surprise here


• Lions vs Force - The Lions have to come good at some point this season and the Force look like they're going to be the team they do it against


• Bulls vs Sharks -.... Sharks = FISH PASTE... that's all I am saying on the subject!

Happy punting!

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Reds on a roll

Wow the Reds are on something of a Tottenham Hotspur streak at the moment. They beat the Bulls last week and now the Stormers this morning, and are genuine contenders for a semi-final berth.

Quade Cooper has been an absolute machine for the Reds and even if he a pain in the arse, it is hard to dispute his talent.

Cooper is now in third place with 129 points in this season. He's scored tries (4), converted 23 tries, kicked 20 penalties and scored a drop goal. Not a bad tally and considering the next highest Reds scorers are on 20 points he's proving to be a machine for them.

If you're a stormers supporter - like me - then you will be super disappointed by the performance today. There is quite a lot of work to do to ensure a home semi-final. We've gotta secure points against the Crusaders (who got a surprise from the Force today), Sharks (who are going to get smashed this weekend by the Blues) and then a tricky fixture against the Bulls.

Bring it on!

Super 14 picks

Wow - it is going to be another exciting weekend in the Super 14 and we're expecting the Sharks to stumble against the Blues this weekend - even in front of their home crowd

There are some tough fixtures to call but here are out picks:

• Chiefs vs Cheetahs - Chiefs to win comfortably
• Reds vs Stormers: Stormers to win but it will be tight
• Force vs Crusaders: Even if they are blowing hot and cold Crusaders should make it
• Highlanders vs Hurricanes: This is a tough fixture to call but its about time for the Hurricanes to fade.
• Waratahs vs Brumbies: Waratahs should do well with the homeground advantage
• Bulls vs Lions: Bulls shouldn't break a sweat here, the Sharks will have taken the stuffing out of the Lions
• Sharks vs Blues: We think the Blues are going to surprise here
  

The Sharks had to work hard last week and they haven't looked like the most cohesive unit this season. We've lost money backing the Blues who have been the masters of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory but this might be the game they come right.

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Super 14 selections

A colourful weekend in the Super 14 with three tough games to call.

Game 1
The Chiefs take on the Stormers in the first match. We're backing the Stormers to deliver the goods here. Chiefs are unpredictable and if the Stormers shift from the tried and tested game plan there could be some serious heartache

Game 2
The Brumbies take on the Hurricanes. I'm backing the Brumbies with a combination of home-ground advantage and perhaps a little less flamboyant play-making which will hopefully see them home. With Giteau at 10 it is hard to bet against them.

Maybe back Giteau for a try or points as well.

Game 3
The Blues versus the Force is one the first of the really tricky fixtures to call. We backed the Blues early on for a crack at the play-offs and they've pretty much (literally) dropped the ball in the big fixtures. The Force blow super hot and cold and nobody quite knows which side is going to rock up - go high on points here.

Game 4
It doesn't matter whether Dan Carter arrives for the Crusaders to take on the Cheetahs it's going to be one way traffic....in fact it probably doesn't matter whether the subs bench for the Crusaders arrive - they probably won't be needed. Cheetahshave lost before they've begun.

Game 5
THIS is a super tricky game. The Bulls may be the pace-setters but the Reds are a team that most would rather not play thisseason. Quade Cooper is looking dangerous and home ground advantage coupled with a sense that the Bulls are beatable, I'm backing the Reds to spring a surprise here.

Game 6
Sharks fans aren't going to like it, but the local derby is going to throw up the biggest surprise of the weekend when the Lions turn them into Fish Paste. It is a mistake to think this Lions side is short of talent - when their backs are up against the wall they will let pure adrenaline take them on.

Don't hate the player - hate the game!


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Thumbs up or thumbs down for Spencer?

I heard an interesting thing the other day from one of my mates who is one of the more knowledgable and sensible armchair rugby fans I know.

As he is one of the last six remaining Lions supporters in South Africa I never miss an opportunity to put the boot in and remind him how his team has done and how poorly they have done in the transfer market.

I never miss a chance to remind him how the Stormers unloaded Earl Rose to them and more recently I’ve been pointing out what a kak season Carlos Spencer has been having.

Spencer (in my opinion) has been indifferent and in fact has probably cost the Lions more than he has added. When Burton Francis or even Herkie Kruger has played the Lions seemed to have benefited from their “keep it simple stupid” flyhalf play.

I said Spencer was passed his prime and his tricks are creating havoc for an unsettled backline and it would make far more sense for the ball to simply travel 9-10-12 and off to the wings.

My mate argued that Spencer was still a quality rugby player but was “too advanced” for the Lions team but was still a good acquisition.

So what’s the verdict – Spencer added value or been a costly blunder for the Lions this year?

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Rugby value bet?

One of the best markets of the day appears to be in the Lions vs Red Super 14 Rugby match this afternoon.

The Lions are at home, backs against the wall and nobody is vaguely interested in them at the moment. 3/1 odds on a home win with guys like Jano Vermaak, Wikus Van Heerden and the very talented Wandile Mjekevu in their line-up… maybe a chance at a surprise?

Irrespective of that, there appear to be some really nice odds in the first-try scored market offered by World Sports Betting.

I’ve taken:

• Wandile Mjekevu (Lions) 12 -1
• Peter Hynes (Reds) 14-1
• Quade Cooper (Reds) 16-1
• Carolos Spencer (Lions) 20-1

and what I think is probably the best value bet of the weekend – Jano Vermaak 22-1.

Maybe the Lions surprise here….

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Super 14 - weekend picks

Exciting times in the Super 14 with the two premier South African sides - the Stormers and the Bulls - losing their first games on tour last weekend.

We were delayed in posting this week and the Bulls have already come in for us.

We've taken the points on offer from SportsPicks.co.za... note that as far as the Stormers punt goes its betting with heart not head so bear that in mind.

Chiefs vs Bulls +3.5: Bulls
Highlanders vs Force +5.5: Highlanders
Blues vs Stormers +7.5: Stormers
Crusaders vs Waratahs +8.5: Crusaders
Brumbies vs Cheetahs +20.5: Brumbies
Lions +7.5 vs Reds: Reds

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Easter Super 14 picks

Hopefully the Easter weekend will be good to you. There don't look like too many surprises this weekend in the Super 14 rugby ...

... which normally means there is going to be an almighty upset somewhere along the lines.

The two potential upsets which I see are the Blues against the Bulls and the Sharks taking on the Reds.

The Bulls have had some defensive issues and the Blues in front of a home crowd have the ability to get some momentum going. The Bulls are going to need to haul in some of their attacking instincts and get the points when they are on offer.

As for the Sharks versus Reds game. I read somewhere that the Sharks have never beaten the Reds at Kings Park. I can't verify that and I am too lazy too Google it but I wouldn't be totally surprised. The Reds have been very hot and cold this season and the Sharks are desperate for points. It doesn't look like the most inspired Sharks backline with Goode at 10 and Tereblanche suddenly becoming a centre but home ground advantage should count in this instance.
Here are my picks

• Hurricanes to beat the Crusaders
• Stormers to beat the Force
• The Blues to beat the Bulls
• Chiefs to beat the Highlanders
• Waratahs will thump the Cheetahs
• Sharks will beat the Reds

Happy punting!

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