Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Thumbs up or thumbs down for Spencer?

I heard an interesting thing the other day from one of my mates who is one of the more knowledgable and sensible armchair rugby fans I know.

As he is one of the last six remaining Lions supporters in South Africa I never miss an opportunity to put the boot in and remind him how his team has done and how poorly they have done in the transfer market.

I never miss a chance to remind him how the Stormers unloaded Earl Rose to them and more recently I’ve been pointing out what a kak season Carlos Spencer has been having.

Spencer (in my opinion) has been indifferent and in fact has probably cost the Lions more than he has added. When Burton Francis or even Herkie Kruger has played the Lions seemed to have benefited from their “keep it simple stupid” flyhalf play.

I said Spencer was passed his prime and his tricks are creating havoc for an unsettled backline and it would make far more sense for the ball to simply travel 9-10-12 and off to the wings.

My mate argued that Spencer was still a quality rugby player but was “too advanced” for the Lions team but was still a good acquisition.

So what’s the verdict – Spencer added value or been a costly blunder for the Lions this year?

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Saturday, April 10, 2010

Rugby value bet?

One of the best markets of the day appears to be in the Lions vs Red Super 14 Rugby match this afternoon.

The Lions are at home, backs against the wall and nobody is vaguely interested in them at the moment. 3/1 odds on a home win with guys like Jano Vermaak, Wikus Van Heerden and the very talented Wandile Mjekevu in their line-up… maybe a chance at a surprise?

Irrespective of that, there appear to be some really nice odds in the first-try scored market offered by World Sports Betting.

I’ve taken:

  • Wandile Mjekevu (Lions) 12 -1
  • Peter Hynes (Reds) 14-1
  • Quade Cooper (Reds) 16-1
  • Carolos Spencer (Lions) 20-1

and what I think is probably the best value bet of the weekend – Jano Vermaak 22-1.

Maybe the Lions surprise here….

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Friday, April 9, 2010

Super 14 - weekend picks

Exciting times in the Super 14 with the two premier South African sides - the Stormers and the Bulls - losing their first games on tour last weekend.

We were delayed in posting this week and the Bulls have already come in for us.

We've taken the points on offer from SportsPicks.co.za... note that as far as the Stormers punt goes its betting with heart not head so bear that in mind.

Chiefs vs Bulls +3.5: Bulls
Highlanders vs Force +5.5: Highlanders
Blues vs Stormers +7.5: Stormers
Crusaders vs Waratahs +8.5: Crusaders
Brumbies vs Cheetahs +20.5: Brumbies
Lions +7.5 vs Reds: Reds

Planning to bet on the Super 14 this weekend?
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Thursday, April 1, 2010

Easter Super 14 picks

Hopefully the Easter weekend will be good to you. There don't look like too many surprises this weekend in the Super 14 rugby ...

... which normally means there is going to be an almighty upset somewhere along the lines.

The two potential upsets which I see are the Blues against the Bulls and the Sharks taking on the Reds.

The Bulls have had some defensive issues and the Blues in front of a home crowd have the ability to get some momentum going. The Bulls are going to need to haul in some of their attacking instincts and get the points when they are on offer.

As for the Sharks versus Reds game. I read somewhere that the Sharks have never beaten the Reds at Kings Park. I can't verify that and I am too lazy too Google it but I wouldn't be totally surprised. The Reds have been very hot and cold this season and the Sharks are desperate for points. It doesn't look like the most inspired Sharks backline with Goode at 10 and Tereblanche suddenly becoming a centre but home ground advantage should count in this instance.
Here are my picks
  • Hurricanes to beat the Crusaders
  • Stormers to beat the Force
  • The Blues to beat the Bulls
  • Chiefs to beat the Highlanders
  • Waratahs will thump the Cheetahs
  • Sharks will beat the Reds
Happy punting!

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Monday, March 29, 2010

10 and 15 for the Boks explored

After 7 rounds of the Super 14 we’ve had quite a lot of time to look at some of the form players in the South African contingent.

The key area for most people are around flyhalf and full-back which are two positions likely to be up for consideration in the Bok setup later this year.

Flyhalf
Morne Steyn (Bulls)
– No question he has been the best South African flyhalf on display and barring an injury he will be the one who wears the Number 10 jersey. The big question is who will be his backup.

Peter Grant (Stormers) – Grant has been solid, consistent and importantly he has shown a desire to attack the gain line. He’s striking up a good relationship with Juan de Jongh and Jaque Fourie. Personally I think he is a little underrated as a goalkicker but I’m in the minority.

Burton Francis (Lions) – Don’t underestimate the performance of Francis who is quickly showing up Carlos Spencer in the Lions number 10 jersey. Nothing has gone right for the Lions this season and yet commentators have remarked about the performance of Francis. I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a surprise inclusion in some of the Bok training squads this year.

Naas Olivier (Cheetahs) – The Cheetahs haven’t had it easy and have been on the backfoot for a lot of the tournament. Olivier has actually surprised this year and put in a pretty handy performance. I actually thought that Olivier and Meyer Bosman have been a good combination at 10 / 12 but while the latter might be in with a shout for the Boks, Olivier will not likely to step up beyond the Super 14.

Ruan Pienaar (Sharks) – The reluctant flyhalf. He does it because he and the Sharks are desperate for a decent number 10. Pienaar will always be there or there-abouts for the Boks because of his versatility but he just doesn’t seem to have “clicked” as the number 10.

Fullback
Zane Kirchner (Bulls)
– We know Kirchner is good and must be the favourite to wear the number 15 jersey this year. However the Bulls defence has been leaky at times and not always the best organised. They’ve had no problems on attack but it doesn’t help if you’re letting in opposition runners.

Joe Pietersen (Stormers) – Having a golden season this year. Good with the boot, fantastic on attack. Kirchener may have the inside track but Pietersen has shown he can mix it with the best of them.

No representative (Lions) – there has been a bit of a revolving door at the Lions and nobody can seriously be considered in the running here.

Hennie Daniller (Cheetahs) – With that square jaw, Daniller is the poster boy of Free State rugby. Another under-rated player but one can’t see him fitting the mould of a Bok this year.

Patrick Lambie (Sharks) – While Stefan Terblanche would probably be the first choice fullback, Lambie appears to be an interesting prospect… earlier days yet.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Exciting weekend of Super 14

A couple of exciting games in the Super 14 this weekend. The Brumbies vs. Chiefs game should be a cracker. We’re backing the Brumbies to pip the Chiefs with homeground advantage.

The Hurricanes are also taking on the Sharks and with the tour being largely unproductive for the Sharks, we’re betting that the Hurricanes will run out comfortable winners.

It will also be interesting to see how the Bulls do in their first game on the road. They take on the Force so its a relatively easy start for them.

On the local front, we are bullish about the Cheetahs prospects against the Reds. The Australian side have been handy but Meyer Bosman and the guys from the Free State have actually put up quite a good account of themselves at home and this will be one of the last opportunities for them to rack up some points at home!

Our predictions:

  • Highlanders to beat the Lions
  • Brumbies to beat the Chiefs
  • Cheetahs to beat the Reds
  • Hurricanes to beat the Sharks
  • Blues to beat the Waratahs
  • Bulls to beat the Force

Definately an interesting weekend of rugby!

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Thursday, March 18, 2010

Another round of Super14 is here

It’s Super 14 rugby action again this week this week.

The Blues vs the Brumbies is the trickiest of the games to call. We’ve been backing the Blues from the start of the tournament and they have failed to deliver, while the Brumbies have also blown very hot and cold.

Our picks:

  • Brumbies to beat the Blues
  • Bulls to beat the Hurricanes
  • Crusaders to thump the Lions
  • Highlanders to beat the Sharks
  • Stormers to beat the Cheetahs
  • Waratahs to beat the Western Force

Happy punting!