Super 14 predictions

Well the Super 14 is really down to the business end of the tournament now and no less than 7 teams would appear to be in with a shout for the knock out stages.

As a reminder here is how the log stands at the moment:

1. Bulls - 43
2. Stormers - 38
3. Crusaders - 34
4. Reds - 34
5. Waratahs - 33
6. Brumies - 32
7. Hurricanes - 32
8. Blues - 27
9. Chiefs - 26
10. Sharks - 25
11. Western Force - 18
12. Highlanders - 17
13. Cheetahs - 16
14. Lions - a real thanks for coming 5 points
    

Our predictions for this weeks fixtures

• Hurricanes vs Reds - Hurricanes should win at home
• Bulls vs Crusaders - It is hard to look beyond the Bulls at Loftus
• Chiefs vs Waratahs - Chiefs have a lot to do in this fixture but I'd expect them to be quite fired up
• Brumbies vs Highlanders - Brumbies are tantalisingly close to a playoff spot - they should put the Highlanders away
• Lions vs Blues - I point blank refuse to give the Lions even a hint of being competitive
• Cheetahs vs Force - The Cheetahs are walking wounded but we still think they will do the business against the Force
  
• Sharks vs Stormers - Last week finally knocked the stuffing out of the Sharks and their playoff aspirations. Home ground advantage shouldn't be enough for them to stop the Stormers machine.
  

Happy punting

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Another round of Super14 is here

It’s Super 14 rugby action again this week this week.

The Blues vs the Brumbies is the trickiest of the games to call. We’ve been backing the Blues from the start of the tournament and they have failed to deliver, while the Brumbies have also blown very hot and cold.

Our picks:

• Brumbies to beat the Blues
• Bulls to beat the Hurricanes
• Crusaders to thump the Lions
• Highlanders to beat the Sharks
• Stormers to beat the Cheetahs
• Waratahs to beat the Western Force

Happy punting!

Super 14 round 2 predictions

So another week of Super 14 rugby is here and there are some interesting match-ups on the cards. Again it is hard to look beyond the home-teams but there are a couple of fixtures where I believe there could be the prospects of an upset.

A quick look at the fixtures

• Highlanders vs. Blues
• Reds vs Crusaders
• Sharks vs Cheetahs
• Lions vs Chiefs
• Hurricanes vs Force
• Bulls vs Brumbies
• Stormers vs Waratahs

In most of the cases I have backed the home teams to win. The exceptions are the Reds versus the Crusaders and the Bulls versus the Brumbies.

Probably a bit of a brave decision to back the Lions against the Chiefs but they showed heart last week and might be trickier than some people are thinking they will be.

As for the Bulls versus the Brumbies - dunno I just get a funny feeling that the Brumbies could be the side which trips up the Bulls in front of their home crowd.

Hhhhmmm

The Lions finally got a Super 14 win on the table when they beat the Brumbies at home last night.... It has taken me 24 hours to recover from the shock before blogging on the subject.

I guess it is always good when an SA side beats an Australian side but geez they made it hard work for themselves.

There are a couple of guys I feel genuinely sorry for in SA rugby - Cobus "Baywatch" Grobbelaar, Louis Ludik, Heinke VD Merwe and Jaques Fourie.

Baywatch and Ludik are guys who simply try their hearts out game after game and they deserve to be on the winning side from time to time.

When it comes to Fourie - you almost wish he could be playing for a class side - between him, Adi Jacobs and Jean Devilliers, he is probably one of the best "pure" centres in South African rugby and yet he keeps turning out for the Lions every year.

Sorry to say but I think Andre Pretorius is finished.... His performance yesterday was weak and his kicking out of hand was directionless. The side has been banking on a Pretorius recovery for the last two seasons and finally he is fit and starting again and he's not delivering....

Dunno we'll watch the next few weeks and see how this Lions side plays out... So long as they don't interfere with the Stormers rebound to make the Semis.... ;-)

What a start....

At moments the rugby was sublime at others it bordered on the ridiculous but we were left in no doubt that the Super 14 was here!

You couldn't have had a better two sides to kick off the competition than for the Brumbies to be pitted against the Highlanders at home. These guys came out to play action rugby and the fans were sent on an emotional rollercoaster as the Highlanders went up 19-0 after 22 minutes only for the Brumbies (inspired by Stirling Mortlock pictured left) to come crashing back into the game.

The Brumbies eventually held on for a 33-31 victory which was incredible to watch!

After that the Blues held on for a 25-19 victory over the Western Force. Tight stuff indeed!

Then we turned to the debacle at Coca Cola Park as the Lions contrived to do everything possible to give the result to the Cheetahs.

Eventually drop goals from Andre Pretorius and Earl Rose pushed the Lions 6 points clear but the way the Lions simply stopped playing mid-way through the second half was absolutely bizarre.

What in the world would inspire you to start kicking the ball on Daniller, Demas (pictured right) and Juries - who were looking full of running - when you still had a quarter of the game to play?! Pretorius with all his experience surely knew better...

Demas I thought was brilliant!

Juan Smith was absolutely outstanding and at the end of the day, the two yellow cards on Heinrich Brussow and Meyer Bosman cost the Cheetahs 3 tries... I thought both yellows were justified.

The Lions are going to need to improve a lot to be competitive in this competition but it was great to see Ashwin Willemse playing really well.

I'm going to blog on the Lions tactics in the next post and some strengths and weaknesses I thought were obvious...

Brumbies

The Brumbies (one of our picks for the Super 14 this year) are being given some coverage on the Green and Gold rugby blog:

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/bumbies_2009_super14_preview

There is also a written update on how they performed against the Hurricanes where they won 28-14 in a trial game. Check out the details here...

http://www.super14.com/news/viewarticle.asp?id=17959

Super 14 betting

From the Sports Trader blog

I love the Super 14... In all honesty I think it trumps the World Cup for sheer intensity of rugby action.

With that in mind I thought I would have a look at the betting at World Sports Betting and see if there was any value to be had?

Outright winner:
Crusaders - 5/2
Hurricanes - 9/2
Sharks - 6/1
Blues - 7/1
Chiefs - 10/1
Bulls - 12/1
Stormers - 12/1
Waratahs - 12/1
Brumbies - 16/1
Western Force - 50/1
Highlanders - 66/1
Reds - 66/1
Cheetahs - 100/1
Lions - 200/1

The Crusaders can play down the loss of Dan Carter but they've got to be hurting a little. You can't shrug off a key play maker.

I thought the Brumbies at 16/1 would make for some good value and the Stormers at 12/1 are an emotional pick.

The Lions are an interesting one this year... 200/1... If they could sort out their flyhalf issues I reckon they could surprise. The team put a lot of hard graft into their Currie Cup campaign and looked like they were starting to gel in 2008. They're not a team anyone is going to back to win it, but don't be surprised if they make some of their opponents work harder than expected for a win.

Winning nations
New Zealand - 11/20
South Africa - 5/2
Australia - 6/1

If you're following the Brumbies bet then it makes sense to take Aus here as well..