New Zealand vs. Australia

The final game of the Vodacom Tri-Nations kicks off in about half an hour and in reality it is a bit of a non-event considering the Springboks wrapped up the tournament last week.

However for the Australian and All Black coaches there is plenty on the line. Both have been under some serious fire for the way their sides have performed.

While I expect the All Blacks to come out on top I'd expect both sides to run the ball - they've got very little to lose and I've got an each way bet on the first points being scored via a try.

In terms of my try-scorers I don't think you can look beyond Matt Giteau (18/1) and Dan Carter (16/1). Giteau has been in good try-scoring form and Carter looks like he is coming back to his best - with a running game on the cards - I'd expect these two to be prominent.

Earl Rose

I’ve been reading a lot of commentary about Earl Rose in recent weeks. Specifically about how he has the ability to combine the sublime with the ridiculous and how his ball skills have made him a shoe-in for the end of season Springbok touring side.

At present, Rose is currently the top points-scorer and he has been part of a Lions squad that seems to have rejuvenated itself since the start of the season. The question is – how much has Rose contributed to this revolution and how much has he cost the Lions this season… and ultimately is he good enough to be the Springbok flyhalf?

Upfront I’m going to make it clear – I didn’t like Rose when he was at Western Province / Stormers and I personally believe that Rose cost the Lions in the Super 14. Do I think he cost the Lions yesterday against the Sharks in the Currie Cup? ABSOLUTELY…

That try for the Sharks where Rose aimlessly kicked it into the charging Sharks backline should be enough to confirm why he should not be selected to play for the Springbok side.

Of course mistakes happen and players make the wrong choices – but with Rose they seem to happen too often in the big games. The choices to run from behind his own goal line or attempts to try and outmuscle some of the worlds’ best flankers or kick into some of the worlds best backline players are mistakes he makes on a regular basis – composure is everything for a flyhalf.

One also has to look at the way Rose plays when considering whether he would be suitable for a Springbok place. I know that Pieter Devilliers is a bit of a fan of his, but ‘Div’ also needs to consider whether or not Rose will actually get a backline firing or not.

Whoever ends up being the Bok flyhalf will be fortunate to have two of Jacques Fourie, Jean Devilliers, AD Jacobs and Frans Steyn outside them – muscular, game breaking centres…

They don’t need a flyhalf who is going to try and be a picture of creative flair. This is why Butch James and Peter Grant fit so well into this system. Both are solid defenders and can take the contact and both (in theory) try and do the basics right.

At the end of the day, as a coach, you have to use what you have. If you don’t have a Dan Carter in your backline to get it firing but you have some super creative centres – then this is where your backline play can come from. There is no point trying to make a player fit a game plan that isn’t there.

Experimenting is great but rather experiment with what you have rather than move away from the game plan that plays to your strengths.

Statistics and Dan Carter

Statistics are an interesting thing to look at when trying to understand how a team played and how a particular individual is doing in a position.

Today an interesting statistic popped up relating to Dan Carter's performance against the Springboks.

Basically the All Blacks were leading South Africa 5-0 about 58 minutes into the game and it could still have gone either way.

Carters statistics at the time read:

Balls Passed - 10
Balls Kicked - 14
Tackles made - 2
Defenders beaten - 0

Statistics tell you 2 things - the Boks weren't prepared to run at the Carter channel and Carter wasn't going to mix it up with the Bok defenders by trying to take them on.

Instead he was quite happy to mix it up by spreading it wide and kicking tactically into the corners. (Which he did like a machine).

The first time Carter beat a defender was when he straightened the line and scored the second All Black try.

Instead of trying to take the defenders on, Carter was quite happy to let the line do the work while he marshalled the troops and controlled the pace. I agree completely that Butch James is a type of flyhalf but the problem is that where Carter seems to be able to decide the game he is planning to play, James seems to be one dimensional in what he is going to work. When it comes off, it looks great, but when it doesn't he can't seem to get his backline going forward.

I don't believe its an issue that James can't play a dynamic game, I just don't think he is being given the responsibility of dictating the pace in the backline.

Its almost like the backline kicking game for the Boks comes from whoever is playing scrum half and the creativity is expected to come from Jean De Villiers as the outside centre.

That means positions 9 and 13 are dictating how the game is going to be played... Doesn't sound right.

Will be interesting to see how the Bok coach responds over the next 2 fixtures against the Australians...